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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2022

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2022

Posted on 17 November 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Notables:

Presence or absence of stabilizing Earth system feedbacks on different time scales Arnscheidt and Rothman confirm the stabilizing effect of carbonate geochemistry on Earth’s climate, at least on “short” timescales. More provocatively: “We have shown that the observations are inconsistent with a dominant stabilizing feedback on the longest time scales and suggested that those fluctuations arise because of weathering acting as a climate forcing (for example, when tectonic processes change the availability of weatherable rocks). Another option is that fluctuations grow on long time scales because of unknown destabilizing feedbacks. In either case, the key question is: Are there any mechanisms in the Earth system that prevent these kinds of fluctuations from eventually driving surface temperature into an uninhabitable regime?” Get past the embedded cliffhanger by reading the paper.

Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera A familiar story: people in the southern hemisphere will be more heavily impacted by climate change than those in the north, despite being relatively scanty contributors to the root cause of the problem. Here we’re speaking of vanishing water resources. Let alone humans, Rhoades et al. point out that ecological systems will also be degraded. 

Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe Blackport & Fyfe describe the meat of the problem they’re investigating: “Here, we show that over the period from 1951 to 2020, the wintertime North Atlantic jet has strengthened, while model trends are, on average, only very weakly positive. The observed strengthening is greater than in any one of the 303 simulations from 44 climate models considered in our study. This divergence between models and observations is now much more apparent because of a very strong jet observed over the past decade.” The authors assess natural variabilty as culprit and find it unlikely, suggesting that models are failing to capture the effect. The oversight has important implications for projections that steer adaptation planning, etc.

African perspectives on climate change research  “The countries of Africa have contributed comparatively little to anthropogenic emissions, yet the continent feels the impacts of global warming in many different ways, with changes in hydroclimate, biodiversity and wildfire dynamics already visible today. These changes happen simultaneously with considerable societal and economic transformations in many countries.” Here African researchers describe their preoccupations: scientific questions of especial interest to a continent facing huge and increasingly urgent challenges from climate change.

A Look at 2021: Takeaway Points from the State of the Climate Supplement What’s written on the tin: BAMS provides the very top lines of the full treatment, State of the Climate in 2021.

Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections In Nature Communications Dániel Topál & crew dive into fascinating details in their exploration of a mismatch between models and reality. Some surprising facts about the effects of wind on ice are revealed. More concerningly, given the conclusions of the paper our projections are likely to be missing a fairly significant proportion of Greenland’s expected contribution to sea level rise.

146 articles in 68 journals by 1320 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Presence or absence of stabilizing Earth system feedbacks on different time scales
Arnscheidt & Rothman, Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adc924

Processes Controlling the Southern Ocean Temperature Change
Chen et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0111.1

Why is Seasonal Density Stratification in Shelf Seas Expected to Increase Under Future Climate Change?
Holt et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100448

Observations of climate change, effects

Accelerated Sea Ice Loss from Late Summer Cyclones in the New Arctic
Finocchio et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0315.1

Atmospheric energy change in the Arctic troposphere under Arctic warming
Kong et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7638

Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe
Blackport & Fyfe, Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.abn3112

Croatian high-resolution monthly gridded dataset of homogenised surface air temperature
Per?ec Tadi? et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04241-y

Density staircases are disappearing in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean
Ménesguen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018877

Ocean currents show global intensification of weak tropical cyclones
Wang et al., Nature, 10.1038/s41586-022-05326-4

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity
Wang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5

Shifting seasons and threats to harvest, culture, and self-identity: A personal narrative on the consequences of changing climate
Charlie et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000617

The Warming of the Arabian Sea Induced a Northward Summer Monsoon over the Tibetan Plateau
Zhang et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0273.1

Trend analysis of observed precipitation, temperature, and streamflow for Hadejia-Nguru wetlands catchment, Nigeria
Dan’azumi & Ibrahim, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04270-7

Trends and space–time patterns of near-surface temperatures on Maxwell Bay, King George Island, Antarctica
Bello et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7661

Trends in intraseasonal temperature variability in Europe, 1961–2018
Krauskopf & Huth Huth, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7645

Trends of extreme US weather events in the changing climate
Shenoy et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2207536119

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A combined sea and sea-ice surface temperature climate dataset of the Arctic, 1982–2021
Nielsen-Englyst et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113331

Accurate Attribution and Seasonal Prediction of Climatic Anomalies Using Causal Inference Theory
He et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0033.1

Expanding Access to Open Environmental Data: Advancements and Next Steps
Willett et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0158.1

Integrated assessment of multiple characteristics for extreme climatic events under climate change: Application of a distribution-evolution-attribution-risk framework
Wu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106515

Monitoring nature’s calendar from space: Emerging topics in land surface phenology and associated opportunities for science applications
Ma et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16436

Use of daily precipitation records to assess the response of extreme events to global warming: Methodology and illustrative application to the European region
Giorgi & Ciarlò, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7629

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
Geng et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33930-5

Evaluation and multimodel projection of seasonal precipitation extremes over central Asia based on CMIP6 simulations
Dike et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7641

Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using bias-corrected CMIP6 models
Babaousmail et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7644

Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluation and projection of climate extremes for southeast Australia
Ji et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100526

Responses of Surface Evaporative Fluxes in Montane Cloud Forests to the Climate Change Scenario
Yang et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0023.1

Uncertainties in projections of climate extremes indices in South America via Bayesian inference
Gouveia et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7650

Weakened amplitude and delayed phase of the future temperature seasonal cycle over China during the twenty-first century
Hu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7634

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessment of Antarctic sea ice area and concentration in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Casagrande et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7916

Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe
Blackport & Fyfe, Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.abn3112

Evaluation of the CMIP5 GCM rainfall simulation over the Shire River Basin in Malawi
Zuzani et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04186-2

Integrated Dynamics-Physics Coupling for Weather to Climate Models: GFDL SHiELD with In-Line Microphysics, Zhou & Harris, Earth and Space Science Open Archive, Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511957.1

Inter-annual variability of pre-monsoon surface air temperatures over India using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble models during the global warming era
Karrevula et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04269-0

Inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) in downscaling CFSv2 for the seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon
Mohanty & Mohanty Mohanty, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04278-z

Inter-model Spread of the Simulated Winter Surface Air Temperature over the Eurasian Continent and the Physical Linkage to the Jet Streams from the CMIP6 Models
Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037172

Machine learning-based downscaling: application of multi-gene genetic programming for downscaling daily temperature at Dogonbadan, Iran, under CMIP6 scenarios
Niazkar et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04274-3

Mechanisms behind the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection Bias in Climate Models
Chen et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0304.1

Modulation of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific seasonal cycle by Tropical Instability Waves
Maillard et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100991

Cryosphere & climate change

Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera
Rhoades et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01518-y

Correspondence Among Mid-Latitude Glacier Equilibrium Line Altitudes, Atmospheric Temperatures, and Westerly Wind Fields
Audet et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099897

Extensive inland thinning and speed-up of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Khan et al., Nature, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-022-05301-z

How do snow cover fraction change and respond to climate in Altai Mountains of China?
Qin et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7640

Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios
Noël et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34524-x

What determines the shape of a Pine-Island-like ice shelf?
Nakayama et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101272

Sea level & climate change

Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections
Topál et al., Nature Communications, Open Access 10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2

Paleoclimate

Abrupt Contraction of the Indo-East Asian monsoons Ended the Holocene Humid Period
Goldsmith et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100137

Expansion and Intensification of the North American Monsoon During the Pliocene
Bhattacharya et al., AGU Advances, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022av000757

Global reorganization of deep-sea circulation and carbon storage after the last ice age
Rafter et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abq5434

High temperature methane emissions from Large Igneous Provinces as contributors to late Permian mass extinctions
Chen et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34645-3

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Ant communities in disturbed subtropical landscapes: is climate more important than stochastic processes?
Nooten & Guénard, Oecologia, 10.1007/s00442-022-05276-8

Coastal upwelling generates cryptic temperature refugia
Salois et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-23717-5

Contrasting bottom-up effects of warming ocean on two king penguin populations
Brisson?Curadeau et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16519

Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change
Raw et al., Journal of Ecology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14020

Environment-triggered demographic changes cascade and compound to propel a dramatic decline of an Antarctic seabird metapopulation
Emmerson & Southwell, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16437

Impact of climate change on Arctic macroalgal communities
Lebrun et al., Global and Planetary Change, Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103980

Inconsistent response times to precipitation and soil moisture in Picea crassifolia growth
Zhao et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126032

Large variability in response to future climate and land-use changes among Chinese Theaceae species
Tang & Zhao, Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9480

Protected area designation and management in a world of climate change: A review of recommendations
Ranius et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01779-z

Saturation response of enhanced vegetation productivity attributes to intricate interactions
Lian et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16522

Should we adapt nature to climate change? Weighing the risks of selective breeding in Pacific salmon
Berseth, Environmental Sociology, 10.1080/23251042.2022.2144476

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Anthropogenic Carbon Transport Variability in the Atlantic Ocean over Three Decades
Caínzos et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gb007475

Apparent thermal acclimation of soil heterotrophic respiration mainly mediated by substrate availability
He et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16523

Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment
Lickley et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-240

Clarifying the evidence for microbial- and plant-derived soil organic matter, and the path toward a more quantitative understanding
Whalen et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16413

Different responses of soil respiration to climate change in permafrost and non-permafrost regions of the Tibetan plateau from 1979 to 2018
Pan et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7639

Enhanced India-Africa Carbon Uptake and Asia-Pacific Carbon Release Associated With the 2019 Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole
Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100950

Forest expansion in abandoned agricultural lands has limited effect to offset carbon emissions from Central-North Spain
Velázquez et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01978-0

Invasive alien acacias rapidly stock carbon, but threaten biodiversity recovery in young second-growth forests
Matos et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rstb.2021.0072

Mean annual temperature and carbon availability respectively controlled the contributions of bacterial and fungal residues to organic carbon accumulation in topsoil across China’s forests
Zhao et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10.1111/geb.13605

Methane emissions from macrophyte beach wrack on Baltic seashores
Björk et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01774-4

Modelling spatiotemporal carbon dioxide emission at the urban scale based on DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS data: A case study in China
Wang et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101326

Molecular-Multiproxy Assessment of Land-Derived Organic Matter Degradation over Extensive Scales of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf Seas
Matsubara et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007428

Paddy rice methane emissions across Monsoon Asia
Ouyang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113335

Pan-Arctic soil moisture control on tundra carbon sequestration and plant productivity
Zona et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16487

Soil moisture impacts the tundra carbon balance in a changing climate
Berner & Schädel, Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16521

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Carbon sequestration from refractory dissolved organic carbon produced by biodegradation of Saccharina japonica
Zhang et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105803

Decarbonization

Amorphous iron fluorosulfate as a high-capacity cathode utilizing combined intercalation and conversion reactions with unexpectedly high reversibility
Heo et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01148-w

Consequences of equivalency metric design for energy transitions and climate change
Edwards & Trancik, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03442-8

District heating as a flexibility service: Challenges in sector coupling for increased solar and wind power production in Sweden
Fernqvist et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113332

Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition
Slameršak et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33976-5

Exploiting polymorphism to create heterojunctions for photovoltaics
, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01158-8

Organic solar cells using oligomer acceptors for improved stability and efficiency
Liang et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01155-x

Perovskite phase heterojunction solar cells
Ji et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-022-01154-y

Perovskite solar cells based on screen-printed thin films
Chen et al., Nature, 10.1038/s41586-022-05346-0

Reducing solar PV curtailment through demand-side management and economic dispatch in Karnataka, India
Sambasivam & Xu, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113334

Storing high temperature solar thermal energy in shallow depth artificial reservoir for space heating
Bu et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-24003-0

Sustainable land use and viability of biojet fuels
Uludere Aragon et al., Nature Sustainability, 10.1038/s41893-022-00990-w

The effect of photovoltaic shading with ideal tilt angle on the energy cost optimization of a building model in European cities
Baghoolizadeh et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.10.016

What’s Next for Organic Solar Cells? The Frontiers and Challenges
Tamai, Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202200149

Geoengineering climate

Regional response of land hydrology and carbon uptake to different amounts of solar radiation modification
Zhao & Cao, Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef003288

Black carbon

Significant overestimation of black carbon concentration caused by high organic carbon in aerosols of the Tibetan Plateau
Hu et al., Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119486

Aerosols

Formation process of particles and cloud condensation nuclei over the Amazon rainforest: The role of local and remote new-particle formation
Zhao et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100940

Impact of parametrizing microphysical processes in the jet and vortex phase on contrail cirrus properties and radiative forcing
Bier & Burkhardt, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Open Access 10.1029/2022jd036677

Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing
Watson-Parris & Smith, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate change doesn’t win you a climate election: party competition in the 2021 Norwegian general election
Farstad & Aasen, Environmental Politics, Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2144019

Climate shaming: explaining environmental NGOs targeting practices
Koliev et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2143315

Favourability towards natural gas relates to funding source of university energy centres
Almond et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01521-3

Fear for the future: Eco-anxiety and health implications, a systematic review
Boluda-Verdú et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101904

How Solutions Journalism Shapes Support for Collective Climate Change Adaptation
Thier & Lin, Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2143842

Personal hardship narrows the partisan gap in COVID-19 and climate change responses
Constantino et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2120653119

Staging science: Dramaturgical politics of the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5 °C
Schenuit, Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.10.014

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Assessing the reliability of AquaCrop as a decision-support tool for sustainable crop production
Khaleghi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04216-z

Climate change impacts on phenology and ripening of cv. Touriga Nacional in the Dão wine region, Portugal
Rodrigues et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7633

Compounding precipitation effect in modulating maize yield response to global warming
Ban et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7652

Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming
Sgubin et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16493

Paddy rice methane emissions across Monsoon Asia
Ouyang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113335

What makes an operational farm soil carbon code? Insights from a global comparison of existing soil carbon codes using a structured analytical framework
Black et al., Carbon Management, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2135459

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios
Carvalho et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03454-4

Drought history and vegetation response in the Angolan Highlands
Lourenco et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04281-4

Effect difference of climate change and urbanization on extreme precipitation over the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
Deng et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106514

Seasonality and impact factor analysis of streamflow sensitivity to climate change across China
Gou et al., Earth’s Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003062

Spatiotemporal distribution analysis of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin based on continuity
Jin et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05534-1

Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation concentration influenced by large-scale climatic factors and potential links to flood-drought events across China 1958–2019
Fu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106507

The impact of climate change on operational estimates of Probable Maximum Precipitation
Visser et al., Water Resources Research, 10.1029/2022wr032247

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcing in Western United States Hydroclimate Extremes
Zhang & Gillies, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100659

The Role of Tibetan Plateau–Indian Ocean Thermal Contrast in the Significant Increasing Precipitation over the Southern Tibetan Plateau in May after the Mid-1990s
Li & Xiao, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0619.1

The Warming of the Arabian Sea Induced a Northward Summer Monsoon over the Tibetan Plateau
Zhang et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0273.1

Climate change economics

Combined nonlinear effects of urbanization and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Malaysia. An application of QARDL and KRLS
Awan et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101342

Climate change and the circular economy

Explanations of the political gridlock behind international circular economy: Waste Ban narratives in the China-EU cooperation
Luo et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01758-4

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A feminist climate policy? Examining Canada’s climate commitments
Fawad et al., Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2144011

Carbon tax effect difference on net-zero carbon emissions target and social welfare level promotion
Chang, Carbon Management, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2144763

Optimal carbon taxation in EU frontrunner countries: coordinating with the EU ETS and addressing leakage
Kruse-Andersen & Sørensen, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2145259

The Role of the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise in the Proposed SEC Rule on Climate-Related Disclosures
Ten Hoeve, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0184.1

The why and how of assigning responsibility for supply chain emissions
Gopalakrishnan, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01543-x

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Equitable buyouts? Learning from state, county, and local floodplain management programs
Shi et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03453-5

How Solutions Journalism Shapes Support for Collective Climate Change Adaptation
Thier & Lin, Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2143842

Unattended gap in local adaptation plans: the quality of vulnerability knowledge in climate risk management
Marín-Puig et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100465

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate and vector-borne diseases in Indonesia: a systematic literature review and critical appraisal of evidence
Marina et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02390-3

Comprehensive analysis of climate-related comfort in southern China: Climatology, trend, and interannual variations
Zhang et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101349

Weather integrated multiple machine learning models for prediction of dengue prevalence in India
Kakarla et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02405-z

Climate change & geopolitics

A choice between neoliberal engagement and strategic autonomy? The impossibility of EU’s green cooperation with Russia between 2019 and 2021
Romanova, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113329

Other

A review of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in future
Alizadeh, Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104246

An unprecedented high temperature event in southern China in autumn 2021 and the essential role of the mid-latitude trough
DING et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.11.002

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham’s (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Ozone impact from solar energetic particles cools the polar stratosphere
Szela?g et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34666-y

Preliminary study on the global impact of sanctions on fossil energy trade: Based on complex network theory
Zheng et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.10.023

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A Look at 2021: Takeaway Points from the State of the Climate Supplement
Blunden & Boyer, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0177.1

Acceleration of vegetation phenological changes
Chen, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16430

Advancing Interdisciplinary and Convergent Science for Communities: Lessons Learned through the NCAR Early-Career Faculty Innovator Program
Bukvic et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-21-0265.1

African perspectives on climate change research
Al-Zu’bi et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01519-x

An urgent need for COP27: confronting converging crises
Falk et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01253-5

Designing insurance for climate change
Wagner, Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01514-2

Effective carbon taxes need green nudges
Gravert & Shreedhar, Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01515-1

From Necrocene to Naíocene—promising pathways toward sustainable agri-food systems
Keck & Flachs, Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01255-3

Leveraging collective action and environmental literacy to address complex sustainability challenges
Ardoin et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01764-6

The path to 1.5 °C requires ratcheting of climate pledges
Iyer et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01517-z


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Global Landscape of Climate Finance. A Decade of Data: 2011-2020, Naran et al., Climate Policy Initiative

The past decade saw growing momentum, where public and private climate finance almost doubled between 2011 and 2020. However, reaching climate objectives will require climate investment to increase at least seven times by the end of this decade as well as the alignment of all other financial flows with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios-Based Assessment, John Litchfield, THe Center for Climate and Security

The states of Mainland Southeast Asia—Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam—are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts, owing to their geographic situation and heterogeneous levels of internal development. Regional populations are already experiencing the first-order physical consequences of a changing climate, including an increased frequency of extreme weather events, higher mean temperatures, decreased weather predictability, and rising sea levels. Beyond these immediately observable consequences, an array of cascading second-order effects is likely to emerge over the coming years, as the region’s inhabitants are forced to cope with unstable agricultural conditions, declining freshwater availability, and increasing energy costs. The future of mainland Southeast Asia’s development, as well as its overall stability and security, will be determined in large part by the vulnerabilities and resilience of its constituent states, as well as the willingness of governments in the region to work together and with global partners to mitigate climate risks before consequences are imminent and unavoidable.

Japan’s Dirty Secret: World’s top fossil fuel financier is fueling climate chaos and undermining energy security, Arima et al., Oil Change International

Japan is the world’s largest public financier for fossil fuel projects, providing an annual average of $10.6 billion USD between 2019 and 2021. Japan is the world’s largest financier of gas, spending an average of $6.7 billion a year. As part of the G7, Japan committed to ending international public finance for unabated fossil fuels by the end of 2022, except in limited circumstances. Japan’s support for fossil fuels and false solutions – including gas, hydrogen, and ammonia co-firing, and carbon capture and storage – is fueling the climate crisis, harming communities and ecosystems, and facing rising opposition.

New England’s Climate Imperative: Our Forests as a Natural Climate Solution, Meyer et al., Highstead

New England forests are a critical yet underutilized tool in fighting climate change. They store massive amounts of carbon—and each year they sequester more. Despite the work the forests are already doing to keep CO2 out of the atmosphere, they could do substantially more. As New England states work to meet its’ 2050 goals for reducing emissions, the relative importance of forest-based mitigation will grow. The authors identify five distinct but complementary pathways that illustrate how New England forests can do even more to tackle climate change. By implementing these five pathways, especially if done together, New England can advance conservation and increase the climate mitigation potential of forests.

State of the Climate in Asia 2021, Op et al., World Meteorological Organization

The authors provide a summary of the current climate, extreme events and their socio-economic impacts in the Asia region in 2021. The mean temperature over Asia was cooler than the warmest previous year (2020), but it was still between the fifth and seventh warmest year on record, at an estimated 0.86 [0.75–1.02] °C above the 1981–2010 average (1.41 [1.33–1.47] °C above the WMO 1961–1990 reference period for climate change). The mean temperature anomaly over Asia was larger than the global anomaly of 0.42 [0.39–0.47] °C above the 1981–2010 average. Precipitation was below normal in the western Asia subregion. Reduced rainfall and less snowpack development affected water availability for crops, reducing production.

Priorities for California’s Water. Thriving with Less, Mount et al., Public Policy Institute of California, Water Policy Center

The authors consider the state of water in California: What changes are we seeing now, and what should be expected in the near future? Then they examine how these climate shifts will impact urban and rural communities, agriculture, and the environment. Finally, they explore wet-year strategies that will help Californians get through the dry years.

Atlas of Disaster, Amy Chester and Johanna Lawton, Rebuild by Design

Ninety percent of U.S. counties have experienced a federal climate disaster between 2011-2021, with some having as many as 12 disasters during that time. In 2021 alone, the U.S. experienced 20 separate billion-dollar climate disasters with over 688 direct or indirect fatalities. In order to address the worsening impacts of climate change and head off future damages, bold action is needed. Governments must work alongside communities and cross-sector partners to identify infrastructure investments that will drive physical, social, and ecological co-benefits and create hundreds of thousands of middle-class jobs – before climate events strike, not after communities have suffered. Using a co-creation process with stakeholders, states can deliver new, upgraded, innovative, and climate- ready infrastructure that protects communities in the face of climate vulnerabilities; work to make existing investments more resilient, and creates a new source for “local match” to leverage additional federal funding opportunities. Investing in climate infrastructure will bring short and long-term benefits to both the state and the community where projects are implemented by creating new jobs and seeding new local industries, improving community physical and mental health outcomes, protecting and enhancing ecosystems, and providing a framework for future investments.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.


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